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Red76
440543.2
661560.9
786519.5
Blue91
575623.4
769212.4
719643.1
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13765501001502007691

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+3Teleop
Endgame+9
Fouls+15
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave0
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points16
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +4
11Coral scored#9
41Coral points33
0Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
0Processor points12
8Net points8
8Algae points20
49Total teleop53
Reef
7L4#5
4L3#2
4L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
0Foul points6
76Total score91

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.92.8
56.553.7
Auto12.8
Teleop46.2
End2.0
red by 17.8
43.11.3
30.431.6
Auto7.4
Teleop30.3
End5.5
Second
43.22.8
41.638.8
Auto12.1
Teleop24.8
End6.3
red by 19.8
23.41.3
20.822.0
Auto5.7
Teleop15.0
End2.6
Third
7865
#30
19.52.8
19.917.1
Auto5.6
Teleop11.6
End2.3
red by 7.1
7692
#38
12.41.3
14.916.2
Auto3.5
Teleop6.9
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
39%Barge oddsMissed50%Barge oddsEarned