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Red130
557746.1
575623.4
296047.8
Blue106
363226.4
719643.1
439011.4
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12159050100150200130106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+12Teleop
+22Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
3Leave0
5Coral scored#3
26Coral points16
29Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +1
19Coral scored#12
67Coral points44
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#6
6Processor points18
12Net points24
18Algae points42
85Total teleop86
Reef
11L4#4
6L3#5
3L2#2
4L1 · trough#4
28Game pieces#24
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
2Foul points0
130Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.81.0
40.441.4
Auto7.7
Teleop31.3
End8.8
red by 4.7
43.12.4
31.634.1
Auto7.4
Teleop30.3
End5.5
Second
46.11.0
39.940.8
Auto8.6
Teleop35.1
End2.4
red by 19.7
3632
#31
26.42.4
17.620.1
Auto2.6
Teleop22.3
End1.5
Third
23.41.0
22.023.0
Auto5.7
Teleop15.0
End2.6
red by 11.9
4390
#37
11.42.4
8.911.3
Auto4.3
Teleop6.8
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned27%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
70%Barge oddsEarned61%Barge oddsMissed