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Red134
786519.5
719643.1
553047.6
Blue107
222438.4
363226.4
817933.6
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions114105050150200250300134107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+27Teleop
+25Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave6
5Coral scored#1
26Coral points3
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +10
17Coral scored#18
60Coral points64
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
12Processor points6
20Net points12
32Algae points18
92Total teleop82
Reef
12L4#7
4L3#6
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +27
2Foul points0
134Total score107

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5530
#11
47.60.6
46.447.0
Auto11.4
Teleop32.4
End3.8
red by 9.2
2224
#12
38.40.2
38.238.4
Auto4.5
Teleop32.7
End1.2
Second
43.10.6
41.942.5
Auto7.4
Teleop30.3
End5.5
red by 9.5
8179
#21
33.60.2
33.433.6
Auto3.6
Teleop25.0
End5.0
Third
7865
#30
19.50.6
18.318.9
Auto5.6
Teleop11.6
End2.3
blue by 6.9
3632
#31
26.40.2
26.226.4
Auto2.6
Teleop22.3
End1.5