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Red144
170164.4
765635.0
485124.5
Blue110
786519.5
719643.1
553047.6
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13611150100150200144110

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+12Teleop
+34Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
6Leave3
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points16
37Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +6
18Coral scored#15
63Coral points53
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
6Processor points18
12Net points16
18Algae points34
81Total teleop87
Reef
9L4#8
7L3#4
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
28Game pieces#25
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +34
0Foul points0
144Total score110

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.40.5
64.164.6
Auto21.5
Teleop39.0
End3.9
red by 16.8
5530
#11
47.60.1
46.346.4
Auto11.4
Teleop32.4
End3.8
Second
35.00.5
34.735.1
Auto6.9
Teleop19.0
End9.1
blue by 8.1
43.10.1
41.941.9
Auto7.4
Teleop30.3
End5.5
Third
4851
#35
24.50.5
24.224.6
Auto3.4
Teleop18.6
End2.5
red by 4.9
7865
#30
19.50.1
18.218.3
Auto5.6
Teleop11.6
End2.3