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Red62
564212.5
961820.1
363214.5
Blue12
36196.7
309611.6
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions454202060801001206212

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+6Teleop
+6Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +3
2Coral scored#1
8Coral points5
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
8Total teleop5
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#0
1L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
3Game pieces#1
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
44Foul points0
62Total score12

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9618
#25
20.12.5
15.813.3
Auto2.1
Teleop16.5
End1.5
red by 8.5
3096
#29
11.62.9
14.411.5
Auto1.2
Teleop9.2
End1.2
Second
3632
#31
14.52.5
14.311.8
Auto1.6
Teleop11.1
End1.8
red by 5.1
9.42.9
12.89.8
Auto1.6
Teleop6.0
End1.8
Third
5642
#19
12.51.5
10.79.2
Auto3.2
Teleop8.1
End1.2
red by 5.8
3619
#32
6.72.9
11.28.3
Auto1.8
Teleop3.5
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsMissed