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Red40
81532.4
12320.0
485119.7
Blue34
925519.4
1059016.1
609922.6
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6747020801001201401604034

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+6Teleop
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave3
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points6
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
4Coral scored#4
15Coral points13
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
0Processor points0
8Net points8
8Algae points8
23Total teleop21
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#7
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points0
40Total score34

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
815
#12
32.42.0
21.119.1
Auto5.4
Teleop25.9
End1.0
red by 9.8
22.61.2
17.416.2
Auto5.0
Teleop15.7
End1.9
Second
123
#2
20.02.0
21.619.7
Auto4.2
Teleop14.1
End1.7
red by 0.6
9255
#23
19.40.7
11.110.4
Auto3.1
Teleop14.9
End1.4
Third
4851
#18
19.72.0
15.213.2
Auto3.5
Teleop14.5
End1.6
red by 3.6
16.11.2
16.515.3
Auto4.5
Teleop9.1
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsEarned37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed