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Red26
575616.3
587821.9
965112.5
Blue10
267316.4
786518.6
55329.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions433801020305060702610

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+14Teleop
+16Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave0
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +11
3Coral scored#1
12Coral points5
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
16Total teleop5
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
5Game pieces#2
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
0Foul points0
26Total score10

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.90.8
15.714.9
Auto3.8
Teleop17.1
End1.0
red by 3.3
7865
#17
18.62.8
11.58.8
Auto3.2
Teleop13.1
End2.3
Second
5756
#22
16.31.4
14.413.1
Auto2.0
Teleop11.0
End3.3
blue by 0.1
2673
#13
16.42.8
15.913.2
Auto3.2
Teleop12.0
End1.2
Third
9651
#16
12.51.4
8.26.8
Auto3.7
Teleop7.2
End1.5
red by 3.0
5532
#10
9.52.8
7.44.6
Auto3.1
Teleop5.1
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsMissed21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsMissed19%Barge oddsMissed