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Red39
575616.3
602920.9
48546.0
Blue49
609922.6
71914.7
835219.6
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions35440204060801003949

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+2
+8Endgame
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +4
0Leave0
2Coral scored#3
9Coral points13
9Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +2
4Coral scored#2
16Coral points8
0Processor algae#1
0Net algae#0
0Processor points6
0Net points0
0Algae points6
16Total teleop14
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#6
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points18
39Total score49

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.90.4
12.012.4
Auto4.8
Teleop8.0
End8.1
blue by 1.7
22.60.7
18.117.4
Auto5.0
Teleop15.7
End1.9
Second
5756
#22
16.30.4
15.015.4
Auto2.0
Teleop11.0
End3.3
blue by 3.3
19.60.7
12.011.3
Auto4.3
Teleop13.9
End1.3
Third
4854
#28
6.00.4
5.55.9
Auto2.7
Teleop1.7
End1.6
red by 1.3
7191
#24
4.70.7
7.56.7
Auto1.7
Teleop1.5
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
14%Auto oddsMissed15%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsMissed