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Red70
55329.5
925519.4
81532.4
Blue16
835219.6
71455.1
519710.7
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions462104060801007016

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+42Teleop
+48Endgame
+54Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave3
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points3
13Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +35
11Coral scored#2
39Coral points6
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
6Processor points0
0Net points4
6Algae points4
45Total teleop10
Reef
5L4#1
3L3#1
2L2#1
3L1 · trough#0
14Game pieces#4
BargeRed +6
6Cage & park0
6Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +54
6Foul points0
70Total score16

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
815
#12
32.42.8
24.927.6
Auto5.4
Teleop25.9
End1.0
red by 12.8
19.60.8
10.79.9
Auto4.3
Teleop13.9
End1.3
Second
9255
#23
19.41.7
12.414.1
Auto3.1
Teleop14.9
End1.4
red by 8.7
5197
#34
10.70.8
8.88.0
Auto3.7
Teleop5.6
End1.3
Third
5532
#10
9.52.8
1.84.6
Auto3.1
Teleop5.1
End1.4
red by 4.4
7145
#37
5.10.8
3.62.8
Auto0.2
Teleop4.1
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
34%Auto oddsEarned16%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
9%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed