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Red58
360221.5
972216.6
Blue28
57065.3
975513.4
132220.8
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions69622040801001205828

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+10Teleop
+12Endgame
+30Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +10
6Coral scored#3
20Coral points12
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
0Processor points6
8Net points0
8Algae points6
28Total teleop18
Reef
3L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#4
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
18Foul points0
58Total score28

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3602
#11
21.52.5
24.121.6
Auto3.5
Teleop15.3
End2.7
red by 0.7
1322
#29
20.83.3
21.317.9
Auto3.9
Teleop11.1
End5.8
Second
9722
#28
16.62.5
17.915.4
Auto3.8
Teleop11.6
End1.2
red by 3.1
9755
#19
13.43.3
16.813.5
Auto3.1
Teleop8.4
End2.0
Third
9.35.4
9.915.3
Auto2.5
Teleop3.4
End3.4
red by 4.0
5706
#37
5.33.3
17.013.7
Auto2.0
Teleop1.8
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsMissed38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed