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Red54
85730.2
570213.3
973315.5
Blue48
548617.0
972216.6
977325.7
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5960455055657075805448

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+2
Endgame+2
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +5
6Coral scored#5
20Coral points17
0Processor algae#2
2Net algae#1
0Processor points12
8Net points4
8Algae points16
28Total teleop33
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
9Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
8Foul points0
54Total score48

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
857
#2
30.20.9
30.930.0
Auto6.1
Teleop18.2
End5.8
red by 4.5
9773
#14
25.70.9
25.324.4
Auto6.3
Teleop17.3
End2.1
Second
9733
#18
15.50.9
10.79.8
Auto3.1
Teleop11.0
End1.4
blue by 1.5
5486
#16
17.00.9
16.515.6
Auto3.5
Teleop10.9
End2.7
Third
5702
#31
13.30.9
12.912.0
Auto4.0
Teleop7.4
End1.9
blue by 3.3
9722
#28
16.60.9
14.914.0
Auto3.8
Teleop11.6
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned53%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsMissed15%Barge oddsMissed