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Red87
439164.9
57065.3
258634.1
Blue39
1050517.9
924921.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1244201001502008739

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+40Teleop
+48Endgame
+48Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave0
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points6
30Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +16
6Coral scored#5
23Coral points19
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
12Processor points0
8Net points8
20Algae points8
43Total teleop27
Reef
5L4#3
3L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
15Game pieces#8
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +48
0Foul points0
87Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.91.3
63.161.8
Auto11.9
Teleop45.8
End7.2
red by 43.0
21.80.6
21.220.6
Auto4.0
Teleop15.9
End1.9
Second
34.11.3
34.933.6
Auto10.3
Teleop21.5
End2.4
red by 16.2
17.90.6
16.115.5
Auto1.9
Teleop15.3
End0.8
Third
5706
#37
5.31.3
6.65.3
Auto2.0
Teleop1.8
End1.5
blue by 4.0
9.30.6
9.99.3
Auto2.5
Teleop3.4
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed