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Red122
1058943.9
132220.8
439164.9
Blue93
437525.8
554720.0
608825.2
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions142635010020012293

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+29Teleop
+31Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave9
7Coral scored#1
33Coral points7
33Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +12
13Coral scored#13
45Coral points47
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
73Total teleop61
Reef
4L4#6
8L3#3
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#17
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +29
0Foul points2
122Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.90.0
62.362.3
Auto11.9
Teleop45.8
End7.2
red by 39.1
25.80.5
24.324.8
Auto6.2
Teleop17.8
End1.8
Second
43.90.0
41.341.3
Auto7.9
Teleop33.3
End2.7
red by 18.7
6088
#10
25.20.5
23.724.2
Auto4.1
Teleop17.2
End3.9
Third
1322
#29
20.80.0
18.218.2
Auto3.9
Teleop11.1
End5.8
red by 0.8
5547
#24
20.00.5
18.519.0
Auto2.6
Teleop14.7
End2.7