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Red44
54677.9
285116.9
118835.6
Blue36
570826.0
952813.7
914810.5
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8159020401001201404436

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+10Teleop
+8Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
9Leave0
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
9Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +1
7Coral scored#7
25Coral points26
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
35Total teleop34
Reef
3L4#2
1L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#9
BargeBlue +2
0Cage & park2
0Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
0Foul points0
44Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1188
#12
35.62.8
25.122.3
Auto4.7
Teleop28.7
End2.2
red by 9.5
5708
#34
26.02.0
22.120.1
Auto4.1
Teleop20.4
End1.5
Second
2851
#24
16.92.8
28.125.3
Auto3.9
Teleop11.7
End1.4
red by 3.3
9528
#39
13.72.0
15.913.9
Auto4.2
Teleop8.3
End1.2
Third
5467
#30
7.92.8
15.813.0
Auto2.8
Teleop4.1
End1.0
blue by 2.6
9148
#40
10.52.0
15.913.9
Auto2.2
Teleop7.2
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsMissed37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed