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Red138
125023.5
170150.8
341433.8
Blue118
65678.2
353856.8
24739.2
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions969795100105110120130138118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+6Teleop
+8Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave3
5Coral scored#6
27Coral points30
36Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +3
17Coral scored#14
62Coral points51
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
12Processor points12
12Net points20
24Algae points32
86Total teleop83
Reef
6L4#7
8L3#6
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#27
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
12Foul points0
138Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.83.2
47.450.5
Auto14.9
Teleop34.6
End1.3
blue by 6.0
56.82.4
52.054.4
Auto18.1
Teleop37.6
End1.1
Second
33.83.2
26.529.7
Auto9.0
Teleop21.5
End3.2
blue by 5.4
247
#17
39.22.4
35.838.2
Auto5.4
Teleop29.6
End4.2
Third
1250
#25
23.53.2
16.219.4
Auto6.1
Teleop14.1
End3.3
red by 15.3
6567
#33
8.22.4
3.55.9
Auto2.6
Teleop3.8
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsMissed35%Barge oddsMissed