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Red121
828025.0
341433.8
543635.0
Blue120
657034.7
661831.4
30232.7
44%Model gave it56%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions101110050150200250121120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+1
+1Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave9
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points10
23Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +5
13Coral scored#16
46Coral points59
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
12Processor points12
24Net points16
36Algae points28
82Total teleop87
Reef
5L4#8
5L3#6
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#24
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points0
121Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5436
#13
35.00.6
34.635.2
Auto7.5
Teleop19.5
End8.1
red by 0.3
6570
#10
34.70.5
34.234.7
Auto3.6
Teleop25.2
End5.9
Second
33.80.6
33.334.0
Auto9.0
Teleop21.5
End3.2
red by 1.1
302
#14
32.70.5
32.232.7
Auto7.5
Teleop24.3
End0.9
Third
8280
#20
25.00.6
24.525.1
Auto7.2
Teleop15.7
End2.1
blue by 6.5
6618
#21
31.40.5
30.931.4
Auto5.7
Teleop22.2
End3.5