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Red175
612035.0
364122.7
213783.8
Blue154
366739.5
584350.7
722043.1
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15913950100200250175154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+21Teleop
+21Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave0
7Coral scored#6
35Coral points30
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +7
19Coral scored#19
67Coral points70
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
18Processor points12
20Net points16
38Algae points28
105Total teleop98
Reef
11L4#8
7L3#7
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
34Game pieces#31
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
0Foul points0
175Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
83.82.2
78.881.0
Auto20.8
Teleop52.3
End10.7
red by 33.1
50.71.5
49.350.8
Auto11.5
Teleop31.5
End7.7
Second
6120
#18
35.02.2
32.134.3
Auto8.2
Teleop20.3
End6.5
blue by 8.1
7220
#14
43.11.5
35.837.4
Auto8.4
Teleop29.3
End5.4
Third
3641
#13
22.72.2
20.222.4
Auto4.2
Teleop15.3
End3.2
blue by 16.8
3667
#12
39.51.5
36.938.4
Auto9.8
Teleop26.4
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsEarned23%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
62%Barge oddsEarned87%Barge oddsEarned