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Red152
364122.7
366845.7
584350.7
Blue123
552717.2
477935.6
366739.5
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14897050200250300152123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+19Teleop
+29Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave0
5Coral scored#5
27Coral points23
33Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +9
21Coral scored#17
75Coral points62
2Processor algae#4
4Net algae#2
12Processor points24
16Net points8
28Algae points32
103Total teleop94
Reef
11L4#8
7L3#7
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
32Game pieces#28
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +29
0Foul points0
152Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.70.4
50.851.2
Auto11.5
Teleop31.5
End7.7
red by 11.2
3667
#12
39.51.1
38.439.5
Auto9.8
Teleop26.4
End3.4
Second
3668
#21
45.70.4
45.245.6
Auto12.3
Teleop26.4
End7.0
red by 10.1
4779
#19
35.61.1
34.535.6
Auto6.0
Teleop25.2
End4.3
Third
3641
#13
22.70.4
22.422.7
Auto4.2
Teleop15.3
End3.2
red by 5.6
5527
#33
17.21.1
16.117.2
Auto4.7
Teleop10.5
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
26%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsMissed