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Red208
439860.5
171147.2
376785.4
Blue216
341469.9
50338.9
283276.7
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions222210150200250300208216

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
0Teleop0
Endgame+20
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +18
0Leave9
7Coral scored#8
33Coral points42
33Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +18
29Coral scored#30
103Coral points107
4Processor algae#1
5Net algae#4
24Processor points6
20Net points16
44Algae points22
147Total teleop129
Reef
18L4#15
7L3#12
5L2#6
6L1 · trough#5
45Game pieces#43
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +8
12Foul points0
208Total score216

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
85.40.3
86.285.9
Auto18.4
Teleop58.9
End8.0
red by 8.7
76.70.3
76.276.5
Auto14.7
Teleop53.1
End8.8
Second
60.50.3
61.461.0
Auto8.3
Teleop51.4
End0.8
blue by 9.4
69.90.3
69.469.7
Auto17.3
Teleop44.8
End7.7
Third
47.20.3
48.147.8
Auto9.4
Teleop30.6
End7.2
red by 8.4
503
#5
38.90.3
38.438.7
Auto9.9
Teleop20.1
End8.9