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Red186
439860.5
171147.2
376785.4
Blue198
341469.9
50338.9
283276.7
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions222211150200250300186198

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
+18Teleop
Endgame+14
Fouls+12
AutonomousBlue +11
3Leave0
7Coral scored#10
37Coral points51
40Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +29
31Coral scored#18
112Coral points63
2Processor algae#4
4Net algae#6
12Processor points24
16Net points24
28Algae points48
140Total teleop111
Reef
13L4#11
14L3#8
5L2#3
6L1 · trough#6
44Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +32
4Cage & park36
4Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +12
2Foul points0
186Total score198

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
85.40.5
85.985.4
Auto18.4
Teleop58.9
End8.0
red by 8.7
76.70.0
76.576.4
Auto14.7
Teleop53.1
End8.8
Second
60.50.5
61.060.5
Auto8.3
Teleop51.4
End0.8
blue by 9.4
69.90.0
69.769.7
Auto17.3
Teleop44.8
End7.7
Third
47.20.5
47.847.2
Auto9.4
Teleop30.6
End7.2
red by 8.4
503
#5
38.90.0
38.738.7
Auto9.9
Teleop20.1
End8.9