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Red218
50338.9
341469.9
283276.7
Blue183
439860.5
171147.2
376785.4
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17319650100150250300218183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+13Teleop
+35Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave9
6Coral scored#4
31Coral points18
37Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +3
29Coral scored#21
103Coral points76
4Processor algae#4
7Net algae#13
24Processor points24
28Net points52
52Algae points76
155Total teleop152
Reef
13L4#10
13L3#9
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
46Game pieces#42
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
0Foul points0
218Total score183

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.73.3
68.571.8
Auto14.7
Teleop53.1
End8.8
blue by 8.7
85.40.3
80.580.2
Auto18.4
Teleop58.9
End8.0
Second
69.93.3
61.865.0
Auto17.3
Teleop44.8
End7.7
red by 9.4
60.50.3
55.655.3
Auto8.3
Teleop51.4
End0.8
Third
503
#5
38.93.3
30.734.0
Auto9.9
Teleop20.1
End8.9
blue by 8.4
47.20.3
42.442.1
Auto9.4
Teleop30.6
End7.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsMissed33%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed20%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed