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Red274
170176.8
776983.2
439190.3
Blue247
276784.7
213784.7
3383.5
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions278275240260300320274247

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+17Teleop
+27Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
9Leave9
8Coral scored#5
42Coral points24
51Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +1
38Coral scored#27
135Coral points96
4Processor algae#6
7Net algae#14
24Processor points36
28Net points56
52Algae points92
187Total teleop188
Reef
19L4#15
10L3#6
9L2#6
8L1 · trough#5
57Game pieces#52
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
0Foul points0
274Total score247

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
90.30.5
92.192.6
Auto16.6
Teleop63.6
End10.1
red by 5.6
84.70.9
83.482.6
Auto17.1
Teleop55.0
End12.7
Second
83.20.5
85.085.4
Auto16.5
Teleop56.0
End10.6
blue by 1.5
84.70.9
83.482.5
Auto15.1
Teleop60.2
End9.4
Third
76.80.5
78.679.0
Auto20.4
Teleop47.4
End8.9
blue by 6.7
33
#1
83.50.9
82.281.3
Auto18.5
Teleop54.4
End10.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsMissed65%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
35%Coral oddsMissed28%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsMissed35%Barge oddsMissed