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Red286
170176.8
776983.2
439190.3
Blue170
439860.5
171147.2
376785.4
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions289184100150200250350286170

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+98Teleop
+128Endgame
+116Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
6Leave6
10Coral scored#7
52Coral points34
58Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +80
34Coral scored#22
122Coral points80
5Processor algae#2
10Net algae#5
30Processor points12
40Net points20
70Algae points32
192Total teleop112
Reef
12L4#11
16L3#10
8L2#6
8L1 · trough#2
59Game pieces#36
BargeRed +30
36Cage & park6
36Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +116
0Foul points12
286Total score170

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
90.30.5
92.693.1
Auto16.6
Teleop63.6
End10.1
red by 4.9
85.42.5
80.277.7
Auto18.4
Teleop58.9
End8.0
Second
83.20.5
85.486.0
Auto16.5
Teleop56.0
End10.6
red by 22.7
60.52.5
55.352.8
Auto8.3
Teleop51.4
End0.8
Third
76.80.5
79.079.6
Auto20.4
Teleop47.4
End8.9
red by 29.5
47.22.5
42.139.5
Auto9.4
Teleop30.6
End7.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsMissed27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
29%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsMissed24%Barge oddsMissed