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Red213
439860.5
171147.2
376785.4
Blue279
170176.8
776983.2
439190.3
4%Model gave it96%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions215292150200250350213279

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+29
Teleop+54
Endgame+68
Fouls+66
AutonomousBlue +29
6Leave0
5Coral scored#12
23Coral points58
29Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +25
30Coral scored#29
108Coral points103
5Processor algae#8
8Net algae#11
30Processor points48
32Net points44
62Algae points92
170Total teleop195
Reef
13L4#19
11L3#8
7L2#8
4L1 · trough#6
48Game pieces#60
BargeBlue +14
12Cage & park26
12Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +66
2Foul points0
213Total score279

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
85.40.3
86.886.5
Auto18.4
Teleop58.9
End8.0
blue by 4.9
90.30.6
90.090.6
Auto16.6
Teleop63.6
End10.1
Second
60.50.3
61.961.6
Auto8.3
Teleop51.4
End0.8
blue by 22.7
83.20.6
82.983.5
Auto16.5
Teleop56.0
End10.6
Third
47.20.3
48.648.3
Auto9.4
Teleop30.6
End7.2
blue by 29.5
76.80.6
76.577.1
Auto20.4
Teleop47.4
End8.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
14%Auto oddsMissed21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed18%Barge oddsMissed