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Red182
296054.6
57343.3
661563.5
Blue218
546090.5
168442.0
233788.1
8%Model gave it92%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions166234100150200250300350182218

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+38
Endgame+36
Fouls+36
AutonomousBlue +11
3Leave0
5Coral scored#8
27Coral points41
30Total auto41
TeleoperatedBlue +27
20Coral scored#30
72Coral points107
3Processor algae#3
9Net algae#7
18Processor points18
36Net points28
54Algae points46
126Total teleop153
Reef
12L4#12
7L3#9
4L2#10
2L1 · trough#7
37Game pieces#48
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +36
0Foul points0
182Total score218

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.51.2
61.462.6
Auto12.9
Teleop47.8
End2.8
blue by 27.0
90.50.2
88.087.8
Auto21.1
Teleop60.8
End8.6
Second
54.61.2
52.553.7
Auto9.8
Teleop34.8
End10.0
blue by 33.5
88.10.2
85.785.5
Auto21.7
Teleop58.0
End8.4
Third
573
#6
43.31.2
41.242.4
Auto6.3
Teleop27.3
End9.7
red by 1.3
42.00.2
39.539.3
Auto6.2
Teleop32.5
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsMissed88%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
37%Coral oddsMissed97%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsMissed72%Barge oddsMissed