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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions564902040801004838

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+4Teleop
Endgame+2
+10Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave6
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points6
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +7
5Coral scored#3
19Coral points12
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
0Processor points0
8Net points8
8Algae points8
27Total teleop20
Reef
3L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +6
0Cage & park6
0Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
12Foul points0
48Total score38

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1684
#24
31.72.2
22.119.9
Auto5.5
Teleop24.3
End1.9
red by 14.9
9251
#34
16.81.0
14.113.1
Auto5.3
Teleop10.9
End0.6
Second
9237
#38
15.72.2
15.713.5
Auto2.9
Teleop12.0
End0.8
red by 3.5
9731
#26
12.31.0
16.215.1
Auto1.8
Teleop8.0
End2.5
Third
3568
#17
11.82.2
11.99.7
Auto2.4
Teleop9.7
End-0.3
red by 0.5
5517
#23
11.31.0
14.013.0
Auto2.7
Teleop6.8
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
12%Auto oddsMissed16%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
8%Barge oddsMissed9%Barge oddsMissed