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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8556020401001201401603543

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+2Teleop
Endgame+2
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points9
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +5
4Coral scored#3
13Coral points12
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
0Processor points0
8Net points4
8Algae points4
21Total teleop16
Reef
1L4#2
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
6Foul points12
35Total score43

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1684
#24
31.74.8
32.727.9
Auto5.5
Teleop24.3
End1.9
red by 16.7
6091
#13
15.02.3
16.214.0
Auto3.3
Teleop10.3
End1.3
Second
9662
#19
20.34.8
20.916.1
Auto4.7
Teleop14.3
End1.3
red by 6.7
13.62.3
17.214.9
Auto3.1
Teleop7.7
End2.7
Third
9255
#31
12.84.8
18.513.7
Auto3.2
Teleop9.0
End0.6
red by 0.6
4395
#37
12.22.3
18.215.9
Auto3.9
Teleop5.1
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
49%Auto oddsMissed36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsEarned