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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions91542040608010012014013040

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+15Auto
+70Teleop
+84Endgame
+90Fouls
AutonomousRed +15
3Leave6
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points6
27Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +55
17Coral scored#7
61Coral points24
1Processor algae#0
4Net algae#1
6Processor points0
16Net points4
22Algae points4
83Total teleop28
Reef
11L4#4
6L3#1
2L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
27Game pieces#9
BargeRed +14
14Cage & park0
14Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +90
6Foul points0
130Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.84.5
44.849.3
Auto10.1
Teleop44.8
End2.9
red by 37.4
6085
#25
20.51.5
19.317.8
Auto3.9
Teleop15.8
End0.8
Second
5046
#11
23.44.5
14.919.4
Auto4.3
Teleop12.3
End6.9
red by 3.2
9662
#19
20.31.5
19.818.3
Auto4.7
Teleop14.3
End1.3
Third
5612
#30
19.94.2
17.521.7
Auto5.3
Teleop12.8
End1.9
red by 7.7
9731
#26
12.31.6
15.113.5
Auto1.8
Teleop8.0
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed