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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions867940601001201406978

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+3Teleop
Endgame+9
Fouls+9
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave0
3Coral scored#2
16Coral points9
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +4
9Coral scored#11
31Coral points39
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
49Total teleop53
Reef
6L4#5
3L3#3
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#3
16Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +9
0Foul points0
69Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.91.6
34.933.2
Auto7.2
Teleop26.3
End3.4
red by 4.1
32.80.1
29.329.2
Auto6.9
Teleop21.9
End4.0
Second
9572
#33
24.21.6
27.425.7
Auto2.8
Teleop19.5
End1.9
blue by 6.4
7784
#14
30.60.1
29.829.8
Auto4.8
Teleop22.3
End3.5
Third
9237
#38
15.71.6
14.412.8
Auto2.9
Teleop12.0
End0.8
red by 4.5
5517
#23
11.30.1
11.211.1
Auto2.7
Teleop6.8
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsEarned62%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed15%Barge oddsEarned