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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions63492040801001204940

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+3Teleop
+3Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave6
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points6
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +6
5Coral scored#5
18Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
32Total teleop26
Reef
2L4#3
2L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
6Foul points0
49Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3667
#12
27.51.2
26.925.7
Auto6.4
Teleop19.4
End1.8
red by 7.6
5612
#30
19.90.5
21.721.2
Auto5.3
Teleop12.8
End1.9
Second
314
#29
15.81.2
17.015.8
Auto2.6
Teleop11.8
End1.4
red by 3.0
453
#16
12.80.5
12.411.9
Auto4.2
Teleop8.6
End0.0
Third
3568
#17
11.81.2
11.110.0
Auto2.4
Teleop9.7
End-0.3
red by 0.5
5517
#23
11.30.5
11.110.6
Auto2.7
Teleop6.8
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
26%Auto oddsMissed32%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed