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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8161204010012014011272

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+30Teleop
+28Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave3
2Coral scored#3
9Coral points13
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +37
18Coral scored#9
65Coral points32
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
87Total teleop50
Reef
9L4#5
4L3#2
3L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
12Foul points0
112Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.91.5
35.136.6
Auto7.2
Teleop26.3
End3.4
red by 9.3
3667
#12
27.50.4
27.227.6
Auto6.4
Teleop19.4
End1.8
Second
5907
#18
26.51.7
25.827.5
Auto3.4
Teleop22.2
End0.9
red by 11.1
4961
#21
15.40.4
15.015.4
Auto4.0
Teleop11.0
End0.4
Third
3568
#17
11.81.5
10.211.8
Auto2.4
Teleop9.7
End-0.3
blue by 3.1
6610
#39
14.90.4
16.116.5
Auto4.0
Teleop9.1
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsMissed28%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
44%Barge oddsEarned7%Barge oddsMissed