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Red151
781828.6
207560.3
277141.0
Blue99
969715.5
485535.3
839738.5
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions122965015020015199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+44Teleop
+52Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
6Leave6
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points13
37Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +26
17Coral scored#12
62Coral points44
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
90Total teleop64
Reef
10L4#6
7L3#4
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#19
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +52
0Foul points0
151Total score99

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.32.2
49.251.4
Auto16.9
Teleop33.5
End10.0
red by 21.9
38.50.0
35.535.5
Auto7.0
Teleop23.3
End8.1
Second
41.02.2
32.334.5
Auto10.0
Teleop24.5
End6.5
red by 5.7
4855
#16
35.30.0
34.034.0
Auto6.4
Teleop26.6
End2.3
Third
7818
#13
28.62.2
17.119.3
Auto4.6
Teleop17.3
End6.8
red by 13.1
9697
#38
15.50.0
11.611.6
Auto4.6
Teleop9.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned49%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsEarned16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsEarned