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Red105
277141.0
910629.0
1066416.3
Blue106
920832.5
781828.6
24445.8
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions81105204060120140160105106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+3Teleop
Endgame+7
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
4Coral points6
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +1
14Coral scored#14
50Coral points51
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
6Processor points6
16Net points16
22Algae points22
72Total teleop73
Reef
6L4#6
4L3#3
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
6Foul points0
105Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.02.0
34.536.6
Auto10.0
Teleop24.5
End6.5
blue by 4.7
244
#8
45.81.5
39.841.3
Auto6.9
Teleop32.4
End6.5
Second
9106
#34
29.02.0
21.923.9
Auto2.6
Teleop22.7
End3.7
blue by 3.6
9208
#19
32.51.5
24.425.9
Auto6.1
Teleop17.7
End8.8
Third
16.32.0
11.914.0
Auto4.9
Teleop10.2
End1.2
blue by 12.3
7818
#13
28.61.5
19.320.8
Auto4.6
Teleop17.3
End6.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsMissed63%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsEarned