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Red80
85829.9
387539.5
207560.3
Blue121
205471.2
1064219.5
923915.9
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions141985015020080121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+29
Endgame+41
Fouls+41
AutonomousBlue +17
6Leave0
3Coral scored#7
14Coral points37
20Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +12
13Coral scored#13
48Coral points48
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#4
6Processor points6
4Net points16
10Algae points22
58Total teleop70
Reef
5L4#8
6L3#6
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +12
2Cage & park14
2Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +41
0Foul points0
80Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.33.0
51.448.4
Auto16.9
Teleop33.5
End10.0
blue by 10.8
71.21.7
65.867.5
Auto20.9
Teleop42.2
End8.1
Second
39.53.0
38.235.2
Auto5.9
Teleop30.5
End3.1
red by 20.0
19.51.7
14.716.4
Auto5.1
Teleop12.7
End1.7
Third
858
#22
29.93.0
28.925.9
Auto6.8
Teleop24.4
End-1.3
red by 14.0
9239
#15
15.91.7
9.811.5
Auto4.0
Teleop10.3
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned72%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsEarned