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Red139
365838.7
920832.5
387539.5
Blue104
442245.8
526011.3
828528.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1198750100150139104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+29Teleop
+35Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave9
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points4
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +26
20Coral scored#15
71Coral points53
4Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
24Processor points12
12Net points16
36Algae points28
107Total teleop81
Reef
7L4#5
9L3#6
3L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#22
BargeRed +6
16Cage & park10
16Total endgame10
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
0Foul points0
139Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.51.6
35.637.2
Auto5.9
Teleop30.5
End3.1
blue by 6.3
45.80.7
44.345.0
Auto9.9
Teleop28.7
End7.2
Second
3658
#12
38.71.6
37.539.0
Auto5.5
Teleop31.2
End2.0
red by 10.6
8285
#14
28.10.7
24.625.3
Auto5.0
Teleop17.2
End6.0
Third
9208
#19
32.51.6
28.129.7
Auto6.1
Teleop17.7
End8.8
red by 21.2
5260
#40
11.30.7
10.611.3
Auto1.3
Teleop8.6
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsEarned74%Barge oddsMissed