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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3911405010015020071141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+28
Teleop+62
Endgame+52
Fouls+70
AutonomousBlue +28
6Leave0
1Coral scored#7
3Coral points37
9Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +34
9Coral scored#12
32Coral points42
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#5
6Processor points18
8Net points20
14Algae points38
46Total teleop80
Reef
4L4#8
2L3#5
3L2#4
1L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#27
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +70
0Foul points18
71Total score141

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.72.0
15.517.5
Auto5.6
Teleop15.7
End7.4
blue by 28.0
56.72.2
36.238.4
Auto16.7
Teleop35.1
End4.9
Second
7491
#32
23.52.0
13.815.8
Auto3.5
Teleop16.8
End3.1
blue by 17.4
2145
#12
40.92.2
28.730.9
Auto12.9
Teleop27.9
End0.1
Third
11.82.0
11.713.7
Auto3.4
Teleop6.2
End2.2
blue by 19.5
573
#7
31.32.2
29.131.3
Auto6.9
Teleop20.4
End4.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
34%Auto oddsMissed81%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
22%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsEarned