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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions81710204060100120140160102101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+3Teleop
+1Endgame
+1Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave9
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +4
16Coral scored#17
56Coral points62
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
12Processor points6
4Net points8
16Algae points14
72Total teleop76
Reef
7L4#5
6L3#5
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
21Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +1
0Foul points0
102Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
494
#2
45.32.0
37.439.4
Auto9.2
Teleop27.3
End8.9
red by 10.0
9245
#11
35.42.5
26.829.3
Auto4.6
Teleop26.4
End4.3
Second
9207
#25
20.22.0
18.020.0
Auto4.6
Teleop13.0
End2.5
blue by 5.9
7784
#10
26.12.5
19.021.5
Auto6.3
Teleop17.2
End2.5
Third
8385
#20
12.62.0
12.214.2
Auto4.6
Teleop4.5
End3.4
blue by 10.9
7491
#32
23.52.5
15.818.3
Auto3.5
Teleop16.8
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
50%Auto oddsEarned46%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsEarned