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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions29730204060801001201404978

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+25
Endgame+23
Fouls+29
AutonomousBlue +10
3Leave9
1Coral scored#2
6Coral points10
9Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +15
8Coral scored#8
28Coral points29
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
0Processor points6
4Net points12
4Algae points18
32Total teleop47
Reef
4L4#3
2L3#3
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#3
10Game pieces#14
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +29
2Foul points8
49Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1504
#26
27.91.0
10.711.7
Auto4.5
Teleop21.8
End1.6
blue by 2.2
245
#24
30.10.3
25.826.2
Auto5.4
Teleop22.4
End2.2
Second
16.21.0
11.812.8
Auto4.7
Teleop9.7
End1.7
blue by 11.9
28.10.3
22.422.7
Auto6.3
Teleop19.0
End2.8
Third
5235
#37
12.61.0
9.310.3
Auto2.2
Teleop7.4
End2.9
blue by 6.3
1
#15
18.90.3
13.714.0
Auto4.3
Teleop13.0
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
17%Auto oddsMissed60%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed35%Barge oddsMissed