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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions595002040801003835

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+3Teleop
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave6
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
9Total auto6
Teleoperatedlevel
5Coral scored#4
19Coral points15
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
0Processor points0
4Net points8
4Algae points8
23Total teleop23
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
7Game pieces#6
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
38Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3534
#29
25.12.4
18.015.6
Auto3.3
Teleop16.9
End4.9
red by 6.2
1
#15
18.91.2
14.012.8
Auto4.3
Teleop13.0
End1.6
Second
7491
#32
23.52.4
18.315.9
Auto3.5
Teleop16.8
End3.1
red by 5.6
7195
#16
17.91.2
18.317.1
Auto3.9
Teleop11.0
End3.0
Third
8385
#20
12.62.4
14.211.8
Auto4.6
Teleop4.5
End3.4
red by 5.0
5260
#39
7.61.2
10.49.2
Auto0.1
Teleop4.4
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
39%Auto oddsMissed20%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed39%Barge oddsMissed