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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9587406080120140160103109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+16
Endgame+6
Fouls+6
AutonomousBlue +10
6Leave6
4Coral scored#6
20Coral points30
26Total auto36
TeleoperatedBlue +6
14Coral scored#13
49Coral points47
0Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
0Processor points12
12Net points8
12Algae points20
61Total teleop67
Reef
9L4#6
3L3#5
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
21Game pieces#23
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
0Foul points0
103Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27
#5
55.12.1
38.440.4
Auto12.4
Teleop34.9
End7.7
blue by 4.9
60.03.3
49.352.6
Auto16.2
Teleop42.7
End1.1
Second
7784
#10
26.12.1
21.523.6
Auto6.3
Teleop17.2
End2.5
blue by 2.7
28.73.3
17.520.8
Auto5.6
Teleop15.7
End7.4
Third
8193
#18
25.62.1
21.423.5
Auto4.7
Teleop19.0
End2.0
red by 14.8
9697
#36
10.83.3
9.813.1
Auto3.0
Teleop6.1
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned38%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned68%Barge oddsMissed