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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions766840601001208145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+24Teleop
+42Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
9Leave0
2Coral scored#2
10Coral points9
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +14
7Coral scored#4
24Coral points14
0Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
0Processor points0
12Net points8
12Algae points8
36Total teleop22
Reef
4L4#2
3L3#1
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#8
BargeRed +18
26Cage & park8
26Total endgame8
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +36
0Foul points6
81Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
494
#2
45.31.2
39.440.5
Auto9.2
Teleop27.3
End8.9
red by 20.9
5084
#19
24.42.8
25.823.1
Auto4.4
Teleop17.4
End2.6
Second
4998
#22
19.81.2
16.317.5
Auto5.6
Teleop11.8
End2.4
blue by 0.4
9207
#25
20.22.8
20.017.3
Auto4.6
Teleop13.0
End2.5
Third
5234
#38
13.71.2
11.712.9
Auto4.6
Teleop4.9
End4.2
blue by 4.5
9757
#13
18.22.8
15.612.8
Auto4.8
Teleop10.0
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
37%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
44%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsMissed