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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions93600501506910

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+39Teleop
+41Endgame
+59Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave3
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +36
9Coral scored#1
33Coral points5
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
0Processor points0
8Net points0
8Algae points0
41Total teleop5
Reef
4L4#1
3L3#0
1L2#0
2L1 · trough#0
12Game pieces#1
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +59
18Foul points0
69Total score10

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70
#8
46.13.1
33.530.4
Auto7.5
Teleop32.7
End5.9
red by 18.2
1504
#26
27.95.0
22.017.0
Auto4.5
Teleop21.8
End1.6
Second
894
#23
25.13.1
27.324.2
Auto4.8
Teleop19.4
End0.8
red by 12.3
5282
#40
12.75.0
19.714.7
Auto1.8
Teleop9.0
End1.9
Third
5697
#30
10.63.1
17.814.8
Auto2.8
Teleop5.2
End2.5
blue by 0.2
9697
#36
10.85.0
13.58.4
Auto3.0
Teleop6.1
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsMissed38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsEarned30%Barge oddsMissed