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Red160
446757.7
214562.2
1001524.3
Blue137
670234.8
248664.1
566549.7
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions155171100200250160137

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+34Auto
+5Teleop
+29Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +34
3Leave9
12Coral scored#4
58Coral points18
61Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +29
11Coral scored#19
41Coral points70
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#5
12Processor points12
20Net points20
32Algae points32
73Total teleop102
Reef
6L4#5
8L3#9
6L2#6
3L1 · trough#3
30Game pieces#30
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points6
160Total score137

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2145
#21
62.21.0
60.461.4
Auto20.7
Teleop34.9
End6.5
blue by 1.9
2486
#22
64.11.7
63.061.3
Auto13.6
Teleop39.2
End11.3
Second
4467
#20
57.71.0
56.057.0
Auto13.9
Teleop36.7
End7.1
red by 7.9
5665
#34
49.71.7
52.150.5
Auto7.4
Teleop40.4
End2.0
Third
24.31.0
22.923.9
Auto7.1
Teleop14.2
End3.0
blue by 10.5
6702
#67
34.81.7
35.533.9
Auto5.5
Teleop27.9
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
25%Coral oddsMissed27%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsMissed