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Red212
779057.6
164058.3
108649.6
Blue255
102359.1
331068.0
874963.8
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17219950100150250300350212255

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
Teleop+39
Endgame+49
Fouls+43
AutonomousRed +2
3Leave3
10Coral scored#9
48Coral points46
51Total auto49
TeleoperatedBlue +41
21Coral scored#33
77Coral points118
4Processor algae#4
7Net algae#7
24Processor points24
28Net points28
52Algae points52
129Total teleop170
Reef
11L4#16
7L3#12
7L2#10
6L1 · trough#4
42Game pieces#53
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +43
6Foul points0
212Total score255

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1640
#59
58.32.4
55.858.3
Auto10.7
Teleop38.8
End8.8
blue by 9.8
3310
#47
68.04.4
63.668.0
Auto11.4
Teleop47.6
End9.0
Second
7790
#41
57.62.4
55.257.6
Auto12.5
Teleop40.5
End4.7
blue by 6.2
8749
#15
63.84.4
59.463.8
Auto15.3
Teleop35.5
End12.9
Third
1086
#49
49.62.4
47.249.6
Auto14.2
Teleop30.4
End5.0
blue by 9.5
1023
#19
59.14.4
54.759.1
Auto12.8
Teleop40.9
End5.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
42%Coral oddsEarned54%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned88%Barge oddsEarned