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Red146
839350.6
561474.2
181630.6
Blue171
45657.9
272029.0
214562.2
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions149157050100200250300350400146171

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+3
Endgame+13
Fouls+25
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave3
6Coral scored#7
30Coral points34
33Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +1
14Coral scored#21
51Coral points76
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#2
18Processor points12
28Net points8
46Algae points20
97Total teleop96
Reef
6L4#14
7L3#4
4L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +25
0Foul points12
146Total score171

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5614
#17
74.20.1
63.663.7
Auto20.2
Teleop44.0
End10.0
red by 12.0
2145
#21
62.20.4
60.660.9
Auto20.7
Teleop34.9
End6.5
Second
8393
#35
50.60.1
27.527.6
Auto9.9
Teleop35.6
End5.1
blue by 7.3
456
#13
57.90.4
53.754.1
Auto7.7
Teleop42.8
End7.4
Third
1816
#64
30.60.1
41.341.4
Auto7.1
Teleop14.5
End8.9
red by 1.6
2720
#70
29.00.4
30.230.6
Auto8.9
Teleop12.0
End8.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed32%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned71%Barge oddsEarned