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Red161
50355.3
374848.8
213777.5
Blue136
651055.9
298019.5
164058.3
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions199133100150250161136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
Teleop+5
+25Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave3
7Coral scored#1
34Coral points6
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +33
18Coral scored#18
64Coral points63
2Processor algae#5
3Net algae#7
12Processor points30
12Net points28
24Algae points58
88Total teleop121
Reef
9L4#6
9L3#5
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#31
BargeRed +30
36Cage & park6
36Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
0Foul points0
161Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2137
#10
77.50.8
74.874.0
Auto20.2
Teleop49.6
End7.7
red by 19.3
1640
#59
58.30.6
53.153.7
Auto10.7
Teleop38.8
End8.8
Second
503
#7
55.30.8
48.747.9
Auto14.6
Teleop30.7
End10.0
blue by 0.6
6510
#54
55.90.6
56.557.0
Auto11.1
Teleop38.3
End6.5
Third
3748
#55
48.80.8
49.648.8
Auto7.4
Teleop33.0
End8.4
red by 29.2
2980
#69
19.50.6
17.918.5
Auto3.4
Teleop14.4
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
83%Coral oddsEarned36%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned89%Barge oddsMissed