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Red181
910565.0
446757.7
108649.6
Blue178
32150.5
45657.9
168374.2
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16017550100200250181178

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+7Teleop
Endgame+3
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave6
7Coral scored#5
37Coral points24
40Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +3
24Coral scored#26
85Coral points94
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
24Processor points18
20Net points20
44Algae points38
129Total teleop132
Reef
13L4#10
10L3#7
5L2#11
3L1 · trough#3
40Game pieces#39
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
6Foul points0
181Total score178

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9105
#26
65.01.8
62.163.8
Auto15.6
Teleop42.3
End7.0
blue by 9.2
1683
#18
74.20.8
63.664.4
Auto12.2
Teleop54.6
End7.4
Second
4467
#20
57.71.8
53.154.8
Auto13.9
Teleop36.7
End7.1
blue by 0.2
456
#13
57.90.8
54.955.7
Auto7.7
Teleop42.8
End7.4
Third
1086
#49
49.61.8
33.635.3
Auto14.2
Teleop30.4
End5.0
blue by 0.9
321
#60
50.50.8
47.548.3
Auto13.7
Teleop31.4
End5.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
67%Coral oddsMissed40%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned86%Barge oddsEarned