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Red167
332255.4
146865.3
705660.1
Blue173
545444.3
374848.8
288154.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions191155100200250167173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+12
0Endgame0
Fouls+6
Autonomouslevel
3Leave0
5Coral scored#6
27Coral points30
30Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +12
17Coral scored#19
61Coral points69
5Processor algae#5
5Net algae#6
30Processor points30
20Net points24
50Algae points54
111Total teleop123
Reef
8L4#11
8L3#7
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#4
32Game pieces#36
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
0Foul points6
167Total score173

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1468
#62
65.30.5
62.962.4
Auto12.3
Teleop46.2
End6.7
red by 10.4
2881
#65
54.91.3
58.259.4
Auto12.5
Teleop34.2
End8.1
Second
7056
#30
60.10.5
60.860.3
Auto10.9
Teleop40.0
End9.2
red by 11.4
3748
#55
48.81.3
48.049.3
Auto7.4
Teleop33.0
End8.4
Third
3322
#44
55.40.5
50.850.3
Auto10.2
Teleop37.1
End8.1
red by 11.0
5454
#50
44.31.3
41.943.2
Auto10.8
Teleop32.9
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
57%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsMissed