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Red147
214562.2
301565.9
565352.5
Blue158
600258.2
779057.6
715351.3
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions191172100150200250147158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+9Teleop
Endgame+11
Fouls+11
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave0
11Coral scored#7
54Coral points37
54Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +8
15Coral scored#19
55Coral points67
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
12Processor points12
20Net points16
32Algae points28
87Total teleop95
Reef
10L4#10
9L3#8
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +11
0Foul points0
147Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3015
#14
65.92.0
62.260.2
Auto16.3
Teleop40.5
End9.1
red by 7.7
6002
#46
58.20.0
49.049.0
Auto12.8
Teleop37.4
End7.9
Second
2145
#21
62.22.0
62.560.5
Auto20.7
Teleop34.9
End6.5
red by 4.5
7790
#41
57.60.0
57.157.0
Auto12.5
Teleop40.5
End4.7
Third
5653
#71
52.52.0
52.650.5
Auto9.6
Teleop40.3
End2.6
red by 1.2
7153
#48
51.30.0
52.652.6
Auto9.9
Teleop34.1
End7.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
34%Coral oddsMissed49%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsMissed92%Barge oddsEarned