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Red178
859268.6
359839.4
406950.9
Blue210
332255.4
108649.6
95770.8
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions179170100120140160200220240260178210

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+32
Endgame+32
Fouls+32
AutonomousBlue +18
6Leave9
2Coral scored#5
10Coral points25
16Total auto34
TeleoperatedBlue +14
29Coral scored#33
104Coral points120
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#6
12Processor points6
20Net points24
32Algae points30
136Total teleop150
Reef
11L4#9
8L3#14
7L2#9
5L1 · trough#6
38Game pieces#45
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
0Foul points0
178Total score210

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8592
#53
68.60.5
73.474.0
Auto13.9
Teleop48.3
End6.4
blue by 2.2
957
#16
70.83.4
67.671.0
Auto18.9
Teleop40.8
End11.1
Second
4069
#63
50.90.5
53.554.1
Auto9.1
Teleop33.5
End8.2
blue by 4.5
3322
#44
55.43.4
50.353.7
Auto10.2
Teleop37.1
End8.1
Third
3598
#58
39.40.5
36.837.4
Auto11.1
Teleop20.0
End8.3
blue by 10.3
1086
#49
49.63.4
35.338.8
Auto14.2
Teleop30.4
End5.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
47%Coral oddsMissed46%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsEarned